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Extreme heatwave sampling and prediction with analog Markov chain and comparisons with deep learning
In addition, we show that the SWG emulator trained on 80 years of data is capable of estimating extreme return times of order of thousands of years for heatwaves longer than several days more precisely than the fit based on generalised extreme value distribution.
Probability distributions for analog-to-target distances
These findings are illustrated with numerical simulations of a well-known chaotic dynamical system and on 10m-wind reanalysis data in north-west France.
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