Wisdom of the Silicon Crowd: LLM Ensemble Prediction Capabilities Rival Human Crowd Accuracy

no code implementations • 29 Feb 2024 • Philipp Schoenegger, Indre Tuminauskaite, Peter S. Park, Philip E. Tetlock

We compare the aggregated LLM predictions on 31 binary questions to that of a crowd of 925 human forecasters from a three-month forecasting tournament.