no code implementations • 12 Oct 2021 • Christopher E. Overton, Lorenzo Pellis, Helena B. Stage, Francesca Scarabel, Joshua Burton, Christophe Fraser, Ian Hall, Thomas A. House, Chris Jewell, Anel Nurtay, Filippo Pagani, Katrina A. Lythgoe
In order to predict the effect of the local epidemic on hospital capacity in England, we used a variety of data streams to inform the construction and parameterisation of a hospital progression model, which was coupled to a model of the generalised epidemic.
no code implementations • 25 Jun 2020 • Helena B. Stage, Joseph Shingleton, Sanmitra Ghosh, Francesca Scarabel, Lorenzo Pellis, Thomas Finnie
By comparing the growth rates in daily hospitalisations or confirmed cases under different interventions, we provide evidence that the effect of school closure is visible as a reduction in the growth rate approximately 9 days after implementation.
1 code implementation • 11 May 2020 • Christopher E. Overton, Helena B. Stage, Shazaad Ahmad, Jacob Curran-Sebastian, Paul Dark, Rajenki Das, Elizabeth Fearon, Timothy Felton, Martyn Fyles, Nick Gent, Ian Hall, Thomas House, Hugo Lewkowicz, Xiaoxi Pang, Lorenzo Pellis, Robert Sawko, Andrew Ustianowski, Bindu Vekaria, Luke Webb
During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy.
Populations and Evolution Physics and Society
1 code implementation • 31 Mar 2020 • Lorenzo Pellis, Francesca Scarabel, Helena B. Stage, Christopher E. Overton, Lauren H. K. Chappell, Katrina A. Lythgoe, Elizabeth Fearon, Emma Bennett, Jacob Curran-Sebastian, Rajenki Das, Martyn Fyles, Hugo Lewkowicz, Xiaoxi Pang, Bindu Vekaria, Luke Webb, Thomas House, Ian Hall
Early assessments of the spreading rate of COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expected with limited data and difficulties in case ascertainment, but more reliable inferences can now be made.
Populations and Evolution
