A data-driven analysis on the mediation effect of compartment models between control measures and COVID-19 epidemics
We make a retrospective review on various control measures taken by 127 countries/territories during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic until July 7, 2020, and evaluate their impacts on the epidemic dynamics quantitatively. The SEIR-QD model, as a representative for general compartment models, is used to fit the epidemic data, enabling the extraction of crucial model parameters and dynamical features. The mediation effect of the SEIR-QD model is revealed by using the mediation analysis with structure equation modeling for multiple mediators operating in parallel. The inherent impacts of these control policies on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics are clarified, and compared with results derived from both multiple linear regression and neural-network-based nonlinear regression. Through this data-driven analysis, the mediation effect of compartment models is confirmed, which provides a better understanding on the intrinsic correlations among the strength of control measures and the dynamical features of COVID-19 epidemics.
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