Revisiting Explicit Regularization in Neural Networks for Reliable Predictive Probability

From the statistical learning perspective, complexity control via explicit regularization is a necessity for improving the generalization of over-parameterized models, which deters the memorization of intricate patterns existing only in the training data. However, the impressive generalization performance of over-parameterized neural networks with only implicit regularization challenges the importance of explicit regularization. Furthermore, explicit regularization does not prevent neural networks from memorizing unnatural patterns, such as random labels. In this work, we revisit the role and importance of explicit regularization methods for generalization of the predictive probability, not just the generalization of the 0-1 loss. Specifically, we analyze the possible cause of the poor predictive probability and identify that regularization of predictive confidence is required during training. We then empirically show that explicit regularization significantly improves the reliability of the predictive probability, which enables better predictive uncertainty representation and prevents the overconfidence problem. Our findings present a new direction to improve the predictive probability quality of deterministic neural networks, which can be an efficient and scalable alternative to Bayesian neural networks and ensemble methods.