Out-of-Distribution Adaptation in Offline RL: Counterfactual Reasoning via Causal Normalizing Flows

Despite notable successes of Reinforcement Learning (RL), the prevalent use of an online learning paradigm prevents its widespread adoption, especially in hazardous or costly scenarios. Offline RL has emerged as an alternative solution, learning from pre-collected static datasets. However, this offline learning introduces a new challenge known as distributional shift, degrading the performance when the policy is evaluated on scenarios that are Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) from the training dataset. Most existing offline RL resolves this issue by regularizing policy learning within the information supported by the given dataset. However, such regularization overlooks the potential for high-reward regions that may exist beyond the dataset. This motivates exploring novel offline learning techniques that can make improvements beyond the data support without compromising policy performance, potentially by learning causation (cause-and-effect) instead of correlation from the dataset. In this paper, we propose the MOOD-CRL (Model-based Offline OOD-Adapting Causal RL) algorithm, which aims to address the challenge of extrapolation for offline policy training through causal inference instead of policy-regularizing methods. Specifically, Causal Normalizing Flow (CNF) is developed to learn the transition and reward functions for data generation and augmentation in offline policy evaluation and training. Based on the data-invariant, physics-based qualitative causal graph and the observational data, we develop a novel learning scheme for CNF to learn the quantitative structural causal model. As a result, CNF gains predictive and counterfactual reasoning capabilities for sequential decision-making tasks, revealing a high potential for OOD adaptation. Our CNF-based offline RL approach is validated through empirical evaluations, outperforming model-free and model-based methods by a significant margin.